Gas Price Predictions for 2023

By Rockland Daily Staff

Gas prices are predicted to drop this coming year, but the average could rise above the $4 per gallon threshold, according to GasBuddy projections. 

GasBuddy, an app that tracks fuel prices, shared predictions for 2023 gas prices with CNN. GasBuddy does not predict the coming year to have the same wild changes that caused gas this year to rise above $5 per gallon for the first time in 2022. The app predicts that this coming year's annual average for regular gas will drop to $3.49 per gallon - about a 50-cent drop from the 2022 average.  

The federal government's projections are similar to GasBuddy's. The Energy Information Administration expects the national average to be about $3.50 a gallon in 2023 as refineries continue ramping up gasoline production.

2023 is not going to be a cakewalk for motorists. It could be expensive," said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. "The national average could breach $4 a gallon as early as May -- and that's something that could last through much of the summer driving season."

Gas prices tend to rise in the warmer months when Americans travel more. Additionally, refiners switch to summer-grade gasoline during the warmer months, which costs more to produce.

The reality is that it is difficult to make truly accurate predictions regarding gas prices. This was demonstrated clearly this year, with curveballs coming from every direction causing the unexpected spike in gas prices to $5.02 per gallon. 

Between the Russia and Ukraine conflict, China's Covid-19 lockdowns, recession fears, and interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, 2022 was unpredictable. 

"Basically, curveballs coming from every direction," De Haan said, describing the ups swings in energy markets. "Extreme amounts of volatility. I don't think we've ever seen such an amount of volatility as we saw this year."

As CNN put it, "The 2022 experience means forecasts about 2023 should be taken with a grain of salt."